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Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.