A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
