🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still