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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.